ERN NM INTO TX/OK... WHILE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO DEEP S TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /S OF COASTAL FRONT/...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WRN TX. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING DECREASING STATIC STABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE INITIALLY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EML/CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY DIURNAL STORMS TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG DRYLINE WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF RICHER MOISTURE ALONG NOCTURNAL LLJ AXIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN/CNTRL TX AND SRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ROOTED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...BOTH WITH THE DIURNAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN NM/WRN TX...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE ELEVATED REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
by:NOAA
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario