viernes, 10 de abril de 2009

possible hail,tornado and wind

ERN NM INTO TX/OK...        WHILE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO DEEP S TX AND    THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /S OF COASTAL FRONT/...LOW-LEVEL MASS    RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWWD    ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE    EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WRN TX.  THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH    EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH    PLAINS...SUPPORTING DECREASING STATIC STABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON    INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.        BECAUSE OF THE INITIALLY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LATEST    MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EML/CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE AREAL    COVERAGE OF ANY DIURNAL STORMS TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG DRYLINE    WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO    OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED    FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF RICHER MOISTURE ALONG    NOCTURNAL LLJ AXIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE    SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN/CNTRL TX AND SRN OK.     THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY    LAYER AND ROOTED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE    WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.          GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR    SUPERCELLS...BOTH WITH THE DIURNAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER    SERN NM/WRN TX...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE ELEVATED REGIME SATURDAY    NIGHT.  WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY    STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
by:NOAA



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